The picture (above) taken from this article in The Hindu (https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/Muslim-population-growth-slows/article10336665.ece)
Some of the assertions, allegations and implications made by Hindu nationalists about demographic shifts in India and Bangladesh do not make any sense. For example, it is claimed that as, when Bangladesh was created as the eastern wing of Pakistan in 1947, the proportion of the Hindu population who remained in the Eastern Wing was recorded to be around 22% in 1951, which subsequently declined to about 8.5% in 2011, there must be some sinister reasons behind this demographic shift. And many such reasons have been cited. In actual numbers, there has been an increase in the Hindu population of Bangladesh, from nearly ten million in 1951 to nearly 13 million in 2011. Indeed, there may be sinister reasons for the proportional decline, but the reasons can only be established by objective research and contextual analysis of data. The facts of the matter cannot be established by nationalists’ assertions and imagined causes.
Looking at demographic changes in India, the proportion of the Hindu population has also declined, from 84% in 1951 5o 80% in 2011. There has been a percentage decrease in Indian Hindu population since independence in 1947, but in terms of numbers, the Hindu population of India increased from 300 million at that time to 1.02 billion in 2011.
What might have caused the proportional decline in the Hindu population of India? Might there also be any sinister reasons behind this? Of course, this can only be established by objective studies. The Muslim population of India increased proportionally from nearly 10% in 1951 to just over 14% in 2011, and in terms of the number, the population increased from 34 million in 1951 to 172 million in 2011.
How does one explain this, the Hindu population in percentage terms declining both in Bangladesh and in India, although the rate was more rapid in the case of Bangladesh? Might the real reasons be more complex than the nationalists’ assertions, which are causing the change, and that there are both shared and unique reasons behind the change in the proportional decline of the Hindu population both in India and Bangladesh?
Nationalists usually make wild, unfounded, assertions without facts, evidence and objective analyses, which inflame passions and cause divisions and violence.
We know that anecdotally from the knowledge of friends and families and through researches, as people become more educated and achieve greater economic prosperity, especially with the empowerment of women, communities have fewer children. Could the relative poverty and educational levels among the Muslims in India and Bangladesh as compared to the Hindus be a major factor behind this change. If so, then would not it be foolish for Hindu nationalists to try to target, discriminate and undermine Indian Muslims, which will be counter-productive in terms of how demographic changes will affect India?
If Indian Muslims are more and more excluded and undermined, which will continue to be the case under the resurgent Hindu nationalist programme in India, their levels of economic prosperity and education will correspondingly decline, at least in relative terms, and also likely in absolute terms, which will depend on how virulent the nationalism in India becomes. Poverty and lower education levels among the Muslims in India will also influence the number of children that they will have – an inverse logic will unfold – poverty increasing/education declining and population increasing. This means that what the Hindu Nationalists are doing to the Muslims in India will, most likely, generate counter-productive results in terms of demography, which will see a steady rise, in proportion, of the Indian Muslim population.
It is better to help integrate the Indian Muslims into mainstream society, by reducing and eliminating discrimination, rather than alienate them through threats, violence and anti-Muslim propaganda.