I have two minds on this, based on short and long term issues. I know how the initial welcome of Bihari Muslims after the partition of India in 1947 turned, later, into hate against them and the marginalisation of the community. They have been living in a nightmare situation ever since without a place they can really call home, although, over the years, their conditions have improved slightly, relatively speaking.
I fear that the Rohingyas will, similarly, become a target of hate in Bangladesh and remain marginalised for generations. I don’t think the Burmese will resettle them back into the Rakhine state and Bangladesh cannot absorb them permanently.
From the point of view of the Burmese, it has been a fait accompli which they wanted to achieve for a long time. They are not going to reverse the situation and allow the Rohingyas back into Burma.
Life in the Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazaar is already bad and getting increasingly intolerable every day. Overcrowding, dependency on aid, hygiene problems, lack of privacy, internal conflicts, rise in criminality and organised crime, sex trafficking, hopelessness, police intimidation, etc. are some of the problems afflicting the Rohingyas in Bangladesh. In these circumstances, many Rohingyas will opt to go to the new island settlement being built for them, and some will rightly be suspicious and decide to stay put where they are now.
From the point of view of those who control Bangladesh, if I have judged correctly, it seems that the Rohingyas staying indefinitely in Cox’s Bazaar or for the foreseeable future is potentially a serious nightmare situation – the sure rise of tension, serious criminality, possible terrorism, radicalisation, Rohingyas moving out to other parts of Bangladesh, etc. will pose a serious danger of the situation getting out of control.
It may be a well-meaning policy by the power controllers in Bangladesh to improve the living conditions of the refugees, the Bhasan Chor settlement will in time – precisely how soon I cannot predict – likely to turn into a hopeless, unhappy project. This will be so even though the environment and conditions for those Rohingyas who move there will be infinitely better than what they are currently experiencing in Cox’s Bazaar. Being confined to a small island, which will experience serious flooding periodically, surrounded by sea and unable to travel freely to go to the mainland will suffocate those who move there and the better conditions initially experienced will highly likely become a prison-like nightmare.
I have stayed on a small island for about a week. Although it was beautiful, the limited space which I finished walking around quickly, and the inability to go out when I wanted was not a good experience. I had to wait for the next ship to arrive to take me away to a larger island, the size of a small country.
For the Rohingyas in Bhasan Chor, they will soon experience serious unhappiness, suffocation, loneliness and hopelessness with the slow fading of their hope of ever returning to the Rakhine state. What will then be their life become in Bangladesh?
I cannot see how in the long-term life in Bhasan Chor can become anything but increasingly miserable and a prison-like nightmare for the Rohingyas. But for those who control the government of Bangladesh, they have very little choice as Rohingyas staying in Cox’s Bazaar is potentially a greater evil.
Perhaps some Rohingyas will find permanent homes abroad through UN refugee settlement programmes.