Russia has unleashed a brutally destructive war in Ukraine and the impacts on civilians – deaths, injuries, displacement, separation and mental stress – are incredibly distressing to watch. This war is likely to continue for a long time. Many areas in Ukraine will, for a long time, be blighted by bomb-damaged/destroyed buildings, roads and places of meaning for real people and may become ghost towns.
I understand Russia’s concerns, which I believe to be legitimate, at NATO’s eastward expansion. I believe that NATO and the USA are not sincere about developing a mutually beneficial relationship with Russia. The West has also mistreated Russia since the collapse of Communism – I base this conclusion on my observations of developments since the days of Boris Yeltsin.
The USA and NATO are playing a long-term goal of encircling Russia’s borders with eastern European countries to reduce Russia’s power, relatively speaking, in the long run and break up the vast country, if possible. But I cannot understand how what Russia is doing in Ukraine can be good for her and how that can be morally justifiable.
The impacts of refugees leaving Ukraine in their millions and the future generations born from those who fled will be severe. They will have strong memories of what happened to their parents and the country of their origin. Moreover, a permanent scar and separation will emerge between Ukrainians and Russians, and hate between the two people will blight their relationship for generations to come.
The folly of one man and the people around him has undoubtedly been a severe misjudgment. I believe it was inevitable that Russia would make such a misjudgment. Blaming Putin is not going to help us understand what’s going on. If it were not Putin, someone like him would have emerged sooner or later because that’s how Russia is and has been for a long time. The country cannot change that quickly.
After the collapse of Communism, Russia had an opportunity to establish a normal, consent-based political system. But the biggest mistake Russia made was to bring in a lot of Western experts and advisers to help the country transit from communism to capitalism. As a result, I believe, soon, Russian authorities started to lose control of the county, partly due to their overreliance on western experts and advisers. As a result, Russia was in the process of slow disintegration. So, a time came when they looked for a strong man to save Russia, and they found Putin.
The result has been back to square one: Russia is an abnormal ungovernable country. That is how Russia has been for as long as one goes back to history. It needs strong men to keep the country on track and intact. The impact of Russian misadventure in Ukraine will add to the serious problems they have of governing the country.
Partly due to its history and the mentality of the people, Russian leaderships seem to lack the ability to be sophisticated, subtle and nuanced in politics and international diplomacy. Instead, they are seen as men who express primitive or medieval toughness and who can also develop and exercise strong power. But they are not treated with respect and as equals by Western Europeans. There is a degree of anti-Russian chauvinism involved.
In conclusion, we have to side with the people of Ukraine, even if we know that the USA and NATO are not sincere, and they play double standards for maintaining their world domination. Every group and nation should be able to decide on their future and not be dictated by how and what they should do by an external bully. However, it is also clear that the USA and NATO played their cards wrongly and never tried to allow Ukraine to reach a compromise with Russia. I am also convinced that Western reassurances made Ukrainian leaders believe they could defy and stand up to Russian threats. They were wrong – so far, the West has betrayed them.